← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.06 | fair |
| Man United win | 16% | 22% | 6.00 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 36' | 🟨 | Wayne Rooney · Man United |
| 48' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 71' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eric Bailly · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| coach days | 1048.00 | 378.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1777.84 | 1760.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.52 | -23.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.74 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| league points | 77.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.72 | 26.81 |
| state index | 1.50 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 255.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |