← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 50% | 44% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
| Hull win | 23% | 28% | 4.31 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 34' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 37' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 40' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Hull |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alfred N'Diaye · Hull |
| 84' | 🟨 | Michael Dawson · Hull |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 87' | 🟨 | Curtis Davies · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days |
| 164.00 |
| 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.03 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1506.71 | 1449.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.07 | -13.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 38.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 27.37 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 261.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |