← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 43% | 36% | 2.28 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 39% | 3.33 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kyle Naughton · Swansea |
| 58' | 🟨 | Sebastian Larsson · Sunderland |
| 78' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Sunderland |
| 84' | 🟨 | Darron Gibson · Sunderland |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 316.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1430.07 | 1496.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.07 | 23.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 24.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 28.42 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 401.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |