← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 58% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.23 | value: +8% |
| Stoke win | 19% | 20% | 5.29 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 42' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
| 55' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 67' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 76' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rob Holding · Arsenal |
| 80' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
| 89' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1473.00 | 7530.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1530.95 | 1724.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.91 | 28.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 41.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.43 | 26.00 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 212.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |