← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 46% | 51% | 2.12 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.42 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 25% | 27% | 3.92 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · Southampton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
| 72' | ⚽ | Patrick Bamford · Middlesbrough |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ben Gibson · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days |
| 1289.00 |
| 346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1416.99 | 1571.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.68 | -30.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.40 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 26.72 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 408.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |