← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 53% | 51% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.93 | fair |
| Burnley win | 22% | 24% | 4.49 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
| 83' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 85' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 89' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1685.00 | 1685.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1519.15 | 1487.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.62 | 7.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 28.05 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 340.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |