← Premier League 2016-17 · Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 69% | 59% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | 5.03 | value: +26% |
| Watford win | 12% | 16% | 8.30 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 39' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Watford |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · Everton |
| 70' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 345.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1640.03 | 1477.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.94 | -27.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.80 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 58.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.23 | 28.41 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 263.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |