← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 44% | 50% | 2.21 | value: +11% |
| Southampton win | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 343.00 | 7527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1583.82 | 1712.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.21 | -8.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 42.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 114.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |