← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 86% | 87% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 10% | 10.00 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 4% | 4% | 22.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 34' | ⚽ | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 60' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nemanja Matić · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Patrick Bamford · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 21 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 311.00 | 1284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1809.33 | 1419.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.45 | -0.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 44.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 81.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 28.93 |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 351.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |