← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 61% | 67% | 1.61 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.15 | fair |
| Southampton win | 16% | 14% | 6.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 65' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Bertrand · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 45.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1715.92 | 1578.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.41 | -3.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| league points | 69.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 300.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |