← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 63% | 47% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 30% | 4.57 | value: +35% |
| Sunderland win | 16% | 24% | 6.28 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kamil Grosicki · Hull |
| 69' | ⚽ | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ahmed El-Mohamady · Hull |
| 89' | 🟨 | Victor Anichebe · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 125.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1469.75 | 1410.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.97 | -29.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 27.44 |
| state index | 0.04 | -1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 145.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |