← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 38% | 34% | 2.59 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.03 | value: +3% |
| West Brom win | 30% | 32% | 3.29 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 66' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marc Wilson · West Brom |
| 78' | ⚽ | Craig Dawson · West Brom |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gareth McAuley · West Brom |
| 86' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days |
| 1678.00 |
| 887.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1488.48 | 1528.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.06 | -37.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| league points | 39.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 30.14 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 143.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |