← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 42% | 37% | 2.36 | fair |
| Stoke win | 30% | 32% | 3.24 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.47 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Bournemouth |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Lys Mousset · Stoke |
| 62' | ⚽ | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Shawcross · Bournemouth |
| 89' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1678.00 |
| 1466.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1520.61 | 1529.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.67 | -26.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| league points | 41.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 28.00 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 251.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |