← Premier League 2016-17 · Fri, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 70% | 70% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.24 | fair |
| West Ham win | 12% | 14% | 8.40 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Tottenham |
| 15' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Winston Reid · West Ham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kieran Trippier · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 704.00 |
| 1039.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 10.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.74 |
| elo | 1540.12 | 1792.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.63 | 31.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 2.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| league points | 39.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 12.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 9.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 25.80 |
| state index | -0.10 | 1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 9.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |