← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 60% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.16 | fair |
| Watford win | 16% | 15% | 5.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · Liverpool |
| 45' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Liverpool |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Success · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 0.00 | 39.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1493.08 | 1710.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.70 | 1.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 40.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.97 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 263.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |