← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 76% | 73% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.32 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 8% | 11% | 11.84 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Middlesbrough |
| 31' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 38' | ⚽ | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
| 54' | 🟨 | Adam Forshaw · Middlesbrough |
| 67' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
| 68' | 🟨 | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
| 77' | ⚽ | Calum Chambers · Middlesbrough |
| 81' | 🟨 | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 85' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 22 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days |
| 1276.00 |
| 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1412.82 | 1749.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.42 | 11.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.90 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.41 |
| league points | 27.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.51 | 29.42 |
| state index | -0.71 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 137.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |