← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 69% | 58% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 29% | 4.79 | value: +41% |
| Swansea win | 10% | 12% | 9.45 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Leon Britton · Swansea |
| 18' | 🟨 | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Wayne Rooney · Man United |
| 79' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Swansea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 364.00 |
| 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1784.69 | 1475.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.91 | -7.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| league points | 64.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 27.67 |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 230.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |