← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 53% | 46% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Everton win | 21% | 27% | 4.61 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
| 38' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 40' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 56' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 58' | 🟨 | Enner Valencia · Everton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 75' | 🟨 | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
| 86' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 333.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1667.20 | 1795.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.30 | -13.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 58.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.02 | 27.75 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 287.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |