← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mark Clattenburg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 36% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
| West Brom win | 35% | 39% | 2.82 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Danny Drinkwater · Leicester |
| 22' | 🟨 | Claudio Yacob · West Brom |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 52' | 🟨 | Yohan Benalouane · Leicester |
| 66' | 🟨 | James Morrison · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 880.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1538.99 | 1585.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.93 | 2.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.20 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 30.22 | 28.79 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.96 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 56.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |