← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 44% | 38% | 2.23 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 37% | 3.33 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 46' | 🟨 | Steven Pienaar · Sunderland |
| 76' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · Sunderland |
| 76' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Bournemouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Sunderland |
| 88' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 302.00 | 1671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1419.17 | 1511.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.03 | 10.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 21.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.59 | 26.56 |
| state index | -1.18 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 465.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |