← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 48% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
| West Ham win | 23% | 25% | 4.18 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 3 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 1459.00 | 698.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| -3.60 |
| -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1530.98 | 1538.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.40 | -11.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 39.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.38 | 27.37 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 220.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |