← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 62% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 30% | 4.34 | value: +29% |
| Hull win | 15% | 16% | 6.50 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrea Ranocchia · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alfred N'Diaye · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 332.00 |
| 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1583.41 | 1465.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.20 | 24.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| league points | 40.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 27.36 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 323.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |