← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 53% | 54% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.44 | fair |
| Burnley win | 19% | 22% | 5.18 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 43' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 50' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 149.00 | 1671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1723.15 | 1715.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.12 | -17.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 38.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.08 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.58 | 28.00 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.18 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |