← Premier League 2016-17 · Thu, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 51% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.46 | fair |
| Man United win | 20% | 17% | 4.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 83' | 🟨 | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 84' | 🟥 | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 300.00 | 361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1749.96 | 1783.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.29 | 32.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.36 | 0.76 |
| league points | 64.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.77 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 30.04 | 26.73 |
| state index | 1.03 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 6.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |