← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 44% | 47% | 2.21 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.45 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
| 28' | 🟨 | George Friend · Middlesbrough |
| 31' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
| 37' | 🟨 | John O'Shea · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Darron Gibson · Sunderland |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
| 75' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1272.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1403.85 | 1428.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.21 | -20.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.70 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.57 | 27.62 |
| state index | -1.50 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 38.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |