← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 62% | 47% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 38% | 4.55 | value: +73% ⚠ |
| Crystal Palace win | 17% | 15% | 5.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 47' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Tottenham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 78' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 146.00 | 1030.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1728.44 | 1966.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.40 | 30.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 1.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 38.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | 1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 26.14 |
| state index | 0.96 | 2.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.25 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |