← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 67% | 58% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.10 | value: +26% |
| Leicester win | 14% | 18% | 7.15 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Danny Simpson · Leicester |
| 52' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 80' | 🟨 | Yohan Benalouane · Leicester |
| 82' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Robert Huth · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robert Huth · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 7513.00 |
| 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1699.97 | 1591.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.90 | 19.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 57.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.84 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.85 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 28.63 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.49 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 137.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |