← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 67% | 68% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.80 | value: +4% |
| Southampton win | 12% | 11% | 7.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 24' | ⚽ | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 40' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
| 49' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 53' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 60' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 73' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
| 89' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ryan Bertrand · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 298.00 | 328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.63 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1789.75 | 1588.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.67 | -2.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 75.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.34 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 105.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |