← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 65% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 13% | 16% | 7.60 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 31.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1726.57 | 1522.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.30 | 42.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 66.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 27.42 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -1.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 298.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |