← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 55% | 58% | 1.79 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.51 | fair |
| Burnley win | 17% | 22% | 5.64 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 39' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Man United |
| 65' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 78' | 🟨 | Wayne Rooney · Man United |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days |
| 1665.00 |
| 357.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 4.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1474.22 | 1778.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.87 | 22.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.90 |
| league points | 36.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.46 | 27.29 |
| state index | -0.26 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 36.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |