← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 46% | 42% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
| West Ham win | 27% | 37% | 3.69 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 33' | 🟨 | Edimilson Fernandes · West Ham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ashley Williams · Everton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gareth Barry · Everton |
| 76' | 🟨 | José Fonte · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 691.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1536.56 | 1669.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.76 | 17.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 37.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.39 | 27.13 |
| state index | -0.40 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 292.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |