← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 42% | 49% | 2.35 | value: +15% |
| Stoke win | 31% | 21% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · Swansea |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kyle Naughton · Swansea |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · Stoke |
| 70' | ⚽ | Tom Carroll · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days |
| 111.00 |
| 1452.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1459.25 | 1547.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.58 | -25.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 28.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 29.18 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 191.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |