← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 52% | 55% | 1.89 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.74 | fair |
| Watford win | 22% | 20% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟥 | Oumar Niasse · Hull |
| 42' | 🟨 | Alfred N'Diaye · Hull |
| 62' | ⚽ | Lazar Marković · Hull |
| 66' | 🟨 | Lazar Marković · Hull |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 71' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 81' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 111.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1450.12 | 1507.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.06 | 16.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 28.96 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 233.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |