← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 52% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.76 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 22% | 30% | 4.37 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 14' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 16' | ⚽ | Benik Afobe · Bournemouth |
| 20' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 20' | 🟥 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | 🟨 | George Friend · Middlesbrough |
| 65' | ⚽ | Marc Pugh · Bournemouth |
| 67' | 🟨 | Daniel Ayala · Middlesbrough |
| 70' | ⚽ | Charlie Daniels · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1664.00 | 1268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1500.19 | 1415.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.96 | -18.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 35.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 29.03 |
| state index | -0.42 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 429.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |