← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 35% | 28% | 2.82 | fair |
| Man United win | 34% | 46% | 2.85 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 33' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 48' | 🟨 | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
| 49' | ⚽ | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Man United |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 350.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1757.40 | 1804.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.74 | 6.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 69.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.91 | 0.69 |
| league points | 57.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.67 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 26.91 |
| state index | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 262.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |