← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 36% | 36% | 2.69 | fair |
| Swansea win | 34% | 27% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.28 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 288.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 0.20 |
| 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1704.77 | 1660.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.35 | -38.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 37.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 28.23 | 27.88 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 243.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |