← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 78% | 84% | 1.25 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 8% | 5% | 12.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Mousa Dembélé · Tottenham |
| 19' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ryan Fraser · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Janssen · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 14 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| coach days |
| 1019.00 |
| 1657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1773.39 | 1505.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.38 | 27.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.29 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 68.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 26.36 |
| state index | 1.51 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |