← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 36% | 48% | 2.72 | value: +31% |
| Sunderland win | 36% | 28% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Lee Cattermole · Sunderland |
| 5' | ⚽ | André Ayew · West Ham |
| 26' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Sunderland |
| 47' | ⚽ | James Collins · West Ham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sam Byram · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fabio Borini · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days |
| 288.00 |
| 684.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1426.67 | 1538.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.90 | -34.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.53 |
| league points | 20.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.07 | 27.85 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.66 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 387.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |