← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 48% | 38% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.56 | value: +15% |
| Hull win | 24% | 30% | 4.06 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Oumar Niasse · Hull |
| 51' | ⚽ | Harry Maguire · Hull |
| 66' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lazar Marković · Hull |
| 80' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| 1445.00 |
| 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1537.87 | 1459.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.98 | 22.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.22 | 28.13 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 146.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |