← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mark Clattenburg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 65% | 72% | 1.52 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.25 | fair |
| Burnley win | 12% | 10% | 7.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 49' | ⚽ | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Ben Mee · Everton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ross Barkley · Everton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 318.00 | 1657.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1663.33 | 1480.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.71 | 1.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 54.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 28.41 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 62.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |