← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 71% | 66% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +9% |
| Sunderland win | 10% | 14% | 9.60 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 30' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
| 43' | 🟥 | Sebastian Larsson · Sunderland |
| 46' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Man United |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marouane Fellaini · Man United |
| 82' | 🟨 | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 85' | 🟨 | Didier N'Dong · Sunderland |
| 89' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matteo Darmian · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 282.00 | 343.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1626.29 | 1921.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.19 | -8.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| league points | 20.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.53 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.54 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 171.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |