← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 55% | 38% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.88 | value: +11% |
| Leicester win | 19% | 34% | 5.05 | value: +71% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 4' | ⚽ | Islam Slimani · Leicester |
| 10' | ⚽ | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 23' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Everton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Kevin Mirallas · Everton |
| 29' | 🟨 | Robert Huth · Leicester |
| 41' | ⚽ | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leighton Baines · Everton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Everton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Andy King · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 312.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1843.11 | 1798.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.97 | 56.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 51.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 28.35 |
| state index | 1.22 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -1.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| travel km | — | 152.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |