← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 39% | 40% | 2.54 | fair |
| West Brom win | 32% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Jordy Clasie · Southampton |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 49' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 76' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fraser Forster · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 859.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1556.52 | 1592.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.17 | 27.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| league points | 44.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 29.95 | 26.38 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 182.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |