← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 79% | 82% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.15 | fair |
| Watford win | 7% | 6% | 13.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 39' | ⚽ | Eric Dier · Tottenham |
| 44' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| coach days | 1012.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1768.32 | 1505.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.18 | 5.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.50 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 65.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 28.95 |
| state index | 1.54 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 23.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |