← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 22% | 3.30 | fair |
| Stoke win | 28% | 32% | 3.51 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Jonathan Walters · Stoke |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ragnar Klavan · Liverpool |
| 70' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · Liverpool |
| 72' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 73' | 🟨 | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1438.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 4.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1544.86 | 1712.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.05 | 24.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| league points | 36.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.76 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 71.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |