← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 37% | 47% | 2.64 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.04 | fair |
| Burnley win | 31% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Stephen Ward · Burnley |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 85' | 🟨 | Michael Keane · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days |
| 1254.00 |
| 1650.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1419.66 | 1480.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.05 | -6.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 23.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 28.57 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 109.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |