← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 82% | 82% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.20 | fair |
| Hull win | 6% | 5% | 16.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Evandro · Hull |
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | Ahmed El-Mohamady · Man City |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 64' | ⚽ | Fabian Delph · Man City |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alfred N'Diaye · Hull |
| 85' | ⚽ | Andrea Ranocchia · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 281.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1732.18 | 1463.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.04 | 18.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 58.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.99 | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 124.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |