← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 64% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 14% | 14% | 6.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Adam Smith · Chelsea |
| 20' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 38' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Bournemouth |
| 42' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 74' | 🟨 | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1650.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.61 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1511.52 | 1797.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.03 | 3.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 68.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 141.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |