← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 58% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Swansea win | 18% | 18% | 5.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Wayne Routledge · Swansea |
| 17' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Swansea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Eric Dier · Tottenham |
| 88' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 94.00 | 1009.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1479.88 | 1761.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.74 | 18.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 25.76 |
| state index | -0.39 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 267.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |