← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 53% | 48% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 20% | 26% | 4.84 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Cédric Soares · Southampton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 85' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 308.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1582.64 | 1505.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.06 | 51.58 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.70 | 27.70 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 106.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |